Despite a decline in imports from China in the first half of the year, a study by the German Economic Institut – „Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)“ warns against premature warnings regarding critical reliance.
Significant difference of imports/exports compared to 2022
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According to the IW, German exports to China fell by 8.4% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period of the previous year, while imports even fell by an impressive 16.8%. This resulted in a reduction of the German-Chinese trade deficit to just 30 billion euros – a clear difference from the 41 billion euros in 2022.
However, these remarkable statistics are put into perspective by exceptional factors. Last year, for example, an unusually large number of organic raw materials and chemicals were imported from the Asian giant – a phenomenon that has now returned to normal. According to IW data, this explains around 86% of the current drop in imports; without this exceptional factors, the decline would only have been around 3%.
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Reliance on China: A cause for concern
But what does this mean for Germany’s potentially critical interdependence on Chinese products? The answer is: There is still cause for concern. Despite a lower share of Chinese imports at around 560 out of 800 product groups, IW-Monitoring of the „de-risking“ in Germany shows little cause for relief.
If we look only at industrial products such as machinery or basic chemical products and apply a minimum import value of five million euros, only every second product group shows an actual decline. What is even more worrying is that less than 5% of these industry-critical product groups show a sharp decline of more than 20%.
“Germany still has a long way to go when it comes to China´s de-risking strategy,” warns IW China expert Jürgen Matthes. He calls for more precise monitoring for the assessment of dependency risks and he stresses the responsibility of the German Federal government to provide the necessary resources as part of its China strategy.
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