The Alstom share has entered a dramatic downward trend in recent days. In particular, in the past 5 trading days, the stock has lost over 41% of its value, while the 30-day trend shows a depreciation of around 45%. Among the main reasons for the slump are the company’s revised cash flow forecasts. Instead of an expected positive cash flow of 287.5 million euros, Alstom now forecasts a negative value of between 500 and 750 million euros. This plunge has pulled the share value out of a sideways range of around 22 to 28 euros, marking a new multi-year low.
Loss of management credibility
Gael de-Bray from Deutsche Bank has not only criticised the current fall in Alstom’s share price, but has also brought into play the loss of management credibility. The once investment grade stock is now on shaky ground. A capital increase seems inevitable, as the company’s creditworthiness is also being questioned.
- Cash flow forecast: Negative, between 500 and 750 million euros.
- Management credibility: Questionable
- Capital increase: Probably necessary
Hope for order intake in the second half of the year
Analyst Simon Toennessen of Jefferies believes a recovery in Alstom shares is possible due to new orders in the second half of the year. Martin Wilkie of Citibank, on the other hand, sees the share under pressure until the publication of the final quarterly figures in mid-November.
Sollten Anleger sofort verkaufen? Oder lohnt sich doch der Einstieg bei Alstom?
Technical indicators and outlook
Currently, Alstom’s share price is at €13.28, well below its 200-day moving average (GD200) of €25.43, which is also falling. The technical indicators point to a continuing bear market. However, should the upcoming quarterly figures be positive, this could lead to a trend reversal.
- Current price: 13.28 euros
- GD200: 25.43 euros (falling)
- Outlook: Uncertain, depending on the Q3 figures.
Autor
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